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Prediction for CME (2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-09-05T21:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17677/-1
CME Note: The observed CME starts to faintly emerge from the SE quadrant of SOHO LASCO C2 starting at 2021-09-05T21:36Z, after which a halo feature becomes visible towards the south starting around 2021-09-05T23:36Z. May be associated with the combined eruptions from AR2865 at 2021-09-05T17:54Z (associated with a B7.9 flare) and from AR2864 at 2021-09-05T18:48Z (associated with a B7.0 flare). (CME activity ID: 2021-09-05T21:36:00-CME-001). CME ARRIVAL NOTE: A slight compression in magnetic field is detected starting at 2021-09-10T01:32Z and is subsequently followed by ICME features (notable increases in B-field values and large-scale B-field rotations).
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-09-10T01:32Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-09-08T19:17Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-09-06 04:21
 - Time at C2: 2021-09-05 21:36
 - Radial speed: 537.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: N07W00
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 567.10 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-09-08 19:17 (i.e. predicted transit time: 69.68 hours)
Kp  3.0 - 4.0

Lead Time: 67.53 hour(s)
Difference: 30.25 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-09-07T06:00Z

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